Climate change is an increasing threat to Africa, with many African communities lacking the capacity to respond or adapt to its impacts. Increasing temperatures and sea levels, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme weather are threatening human health and safety, food and water security, and socio-economic development in Africa.

Warming trends have already become evident across the continent. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sixth Assessment Report (released on 6 August) points out that overall, the world is now 1.09 ℃ warmer than it was during the period between 1850 and 1900 and will likely increase to 1.5 ^oC by the early 2030s.

The assessment shows that the ocean surface has warmed slightly less than the land surface since 1850, by about 0.9 ℃ as a global average, but about two-thirds of the ocean warming has taken place during the last 50 years. It is virtually certain the heat content of the ocean will continue to increase for the rest of the current century and will likely continue until at least 2300, even under low-emissions scenarios.

Global warming will only stay below 2 ^oC during this century if carbon dioxide emissions reach net-zero by 2050. If not, vast areas of Africa will exceed 2 ^oC of warming above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100 (IPCC AR6).

Impact on our oceans 

The ocean, a significant resource in the African economy, is being altered by global change. Notably, 38 of the 55 countries in Africa are coastal countries – with the maritime zones estimated at 13 million square kilometres, including territorial seas and approximately 6.5 million square kilometres of the continental shelf.

In 2019, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a Special Report on the Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). The SROCC finds that strongly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting and restoring ecosystems and carefully managing the use of natural resources would make it possible to preserve the ocean and cryosphere as a source of opportunities that help build climate resilience to future changes, limit risks to livelihoods and offer multiple additional societal benefits.

Translating the report into relevant information for African policymakers 

From 15 to 17 September a group of experts met in Kenya (and virtually) to finalise a long process of translating the IPCC SROCC report into relevant information for African policymakers to ensure that the SROCC informs the common Africa position at COP26 in Glasgow.

The process has been facilitated by the African Group of Negotiators expert support system (AGNES), with support from the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Sub Commission for Africa and the Adjacent Island States (IOC AFRICA) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Regional Office for Eastern Africa, and the Canadian International Development Research Centre (IDRC). The process was driven through AGNES and the IOC.

Four policy briefs have been created as part of this process –

• Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, led by Patricia Nying’uro: This policy brief will cover sea level rise in terms of causes, impacts, projections and response to current and future changes.
• Changing Oceans, Marine Ecosystems and Dependent Communities, led by Daid Obura: This policy brief will address issues concerning changing ocean and coastal biodiversity, changing marine ecosystem services and human well-being, as well as ocean and coastal governance.
• Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks: This policy brief will highlight issues related to changes in tracks, intensity and frequency of tropical and extratropical cyclones; marine heatwaves; interocean exchange and global change; and extreme El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.
• Climate Change and the Ocean Economy, led by Ibukun J. Adewumi: This policy brief will address issues related to fisheries and aquaculture, ocean-based renewable energy, ocean-based transport operations, coastal and marine ecosystem services and tourism.

Professor Juliet Hermes, manager of SAEON’s Egagasini Node, led the policy brief on extremes, with Nicole du Plessis, project officer of the South African Marine Research and Exploration Forum (SAMREF), contributing to the Blue Economy policy brief.

Draft key messages from the policy brief on extremes:

• Extreme events (droughts, floods, cyclones, marine heatwaves) impacting Africa are linked to natural modes of variability in the ocean and amplified by climate change.
• The Indian Ocean is warming faster than global oceans and will continue to warm even after emissions reach zero, having severe consequences for the African continent.
• Short-term predictions and longer decadal and century-scale projections are made more challenging because ocean features around Africa are not well-represented in climate models.
• Interocean exchange south of Africa is a key modulator of the Meridional Overturning Circulation and has far-reaching impacts on global climate.
• Scientific knowledge, indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can complement one another by engaging both quantitative data and qualitative information, including people’s historical experience, observations, responses and values.
• It is essential to invest in long-term, sustained observations to support early-warning systems which will advance our adaptation and mitigation strategies to extreme events and abrupt changes.

More information on the other briefs will be published in follow-up newsletters.

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“This was a really fantastic opportunity to work with a group of global experts from Africa and to get experience in translating science into policy. I am grateful for the experience and support from the AGNES and IOC teams.” Juliet Hermes

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